Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Squeezes and other risksWe are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
EventsEconomic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
SqueezesShort squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.
There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric lossesAlso known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.
Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioningWe have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.
A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.
Raw format is kinda hard to work with
However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.
But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Bet correlationRetail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.
Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limitsOne common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.
Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk managementThanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releasesThe majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.
A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.
Data surprise indexThe other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.
Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.
Using recent events to predict future reactionsThe market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?
2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.
Buy the rumour, sell the factA final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.
Trimming or taking off positionsOne thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.
The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.
Two kinds of reversalsFairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.
Logical reversalsSometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.
Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.
Some key releasesAs we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.
Interest rates decisionsThese can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event
Non farm payrollsThese are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.
SurveysThere are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.
GDPGross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.
InflationCountries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.
Industrial dataThings like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.
CommentsOften there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.
TLDR: China is actively fighting domestic capital outflows. They are incentivising keeping funds on-shore by pumping the equity markets. Buy large China stocks (BABA, JD).submitted by 1poundbookingfee to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Inb4 pos or ban
China has a fixed exchange rate regime. Blah blah RMB internationalization, blah blah offshore RMB (which is actually settled in US dollars). This places it within line C of the policy trilemma (which says, you can't sustainably have all 3). Since 2005 to about 2017, the government was moving towards free capital mobility because of large amounts of exports which fed the national forex reserves. You bet billions of RMB left China, which the government didn't really like at first because that reduced domestic investment and would contribute to a weaker RMB. Basically, China was trying to do all 3 which works for a short while... until your forex reserves run out.
The Current Problem
The trade war has definitely been bad for China. I am going to try and skip politics, but basically foreign exchange reserves have been gapping down (official Chinese data is 100% fake). China is increasingly bellicose as well, which doesn't improve relations with trading partners who also buy with US dollars.
You can't exchange for US dollars anymore. For private citizens, you can only exchange for education purposes or travel . For companies, you need verification of invoices through both SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and the tax offices. This used to take 24hrs, but is now taking 2-3 weeks for amounts >$500k. China also has US dollar denominated bank accounts. But unfortunately, you can't take it in cash unless you have the reasons above. Chinese media is also branding holding US dollars as unpatriotic, so I'm afraid my $50k in digital money might be subject to confiscation. If not, it's just fake money (can't take cash or wire out).
China has been brrrrrring to the pace of JPOW. Weapon of choice are muni and local bonds, which have been forced upon local banks. This creates a certain credit problem, but let's not worry about that until later.
China's pretty smart. All those RMB quotes are fake. You can try to get US dollars, but that is almost impossible now. Anyone who wants to buy RMB, contact me and we'll trade at the current price. So looking at the impossible triangle, free capital mobility has become nonexistent. In order to keep exchange rate stability (to avoid a sudden rush towards the door) and keep printing, free capital mobility needs to be 100% sacrificed.
How do you do that with a population that has seen the west and aspire to get out? You need to keep the money onshore. Thankfully, all Chinese are greedy and the equity markets are full of retailers that pump stocks up or down 10% per day. This is one of the reasons for the early July State Council report calling for everyone to buy stocks. Who's buying? Everyone. And if it drops, the national team takes over.
This creates a powerful incentive to fill the foreign reserves again. Foreigners (funds) would want to get in on the action. They will exchange their dollars for RMB, get those 20% gains, but eventually find out trying to get that money back into USD is impossible.
China has also been strengthening the RMB from 7.10 to 6.96 as of yesterday. Smart, because why would you want to sell an asset that's weakening? This is also a reason why China fears gold rallies - buying gold causes RMB to leave. Happily for the SAFE, some banks have stopped offering their paper gold products.
China will pump its domestic markets. Unless you have a Chinese account, the closest thing you can get to are mega names like Alibaba, JD and Tencent. I would avoid touching too small companies because of LK coffee problems.
Oh yeah the trade war? Well, pussies don't make money.
The primary risk associated with the US presidential election is a possible election-related dispute. Furthermore, there are divergences in monetary policy and economic performance. So, the EURUSD is expectedly down. Let us discuss the Forex outlook and make up a EURUSD trading plan.submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Weekly US dollar fundamental forecastOctober has become the worst month for the US stock market since March. The bond market has experienced the worst drop since September 2018. In the last week of October, the S&P 500 sank 5.6%, while the Treasury yield rose to 0.858%. According to Bespoke Investment Group, this has only been 17 times since 1962, when the US Treasury yields rose along with the stock indexes’ drop. Investors believe that Joe Biden’s victory will result in the fiscal stimulus boost provided that the Democrats take control over the Senate. If it doesn’t happen, the extra stimulus package will hardly be accepted by Congress. Is it better to buy currencies, selling stocks and bonds?
The S&P 500 bulls hope for a “blue wave.” However, it doesn’t guarantee that the stock index will resume the uptrend. In 2016, the Wall Street experts predicted the US stock market to fall in case of Donald Trump's victory. At first, everything was going on as expected, but the stock indexes quickly recovered afterward. A wrong forecast cost George Soros $1 billion. And not only him.
Nobody wants to repeat the same mistakes, especially since the S&P 500 could continue correction, no matter who wins. The main source of uncertainty is Donald Trump’s willingness to challenge election results. As of October 31, nearly 90 million Americans already have cast their ballots, which is over 65% of the total votes from 2016. Donald accuses the Democrats of election fraud.
Uncertainty makes investors buy safe-haven assets. However, when the Treasuries are being sold off, investors tend to buy the US dollar. Besides, the growing yield-gap between U.S. and German government bonds sends the EURUSD down as well.
Dynamics of U.S.-Germany 10-year yield gap
Investors are selling the euro off amid the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the introduction of new restrictions by the euro-area governments. Although the euro-area economy grew by 12.7% and outperformed the U.S. growth in the third quarter, everything can radically change in the fourth quarter. The median estimate of 18 Financial Times experts suggests that the euro-area GDP will contract by 2.3% in October-December. At the same time, Oxford Economics predicts that the United States will expand by 3% over the same period. Divergence in economic growth sends the EURUSD down. Furthermore, there is also a divergence in monetary policies.
Dynamics of GDP
Source: Wall Street Journal
The ECB is willing to boost the monetary stimulus in December. 59% of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the Fed, on the contrary, won’t expand the assets purchases until the end of 2021. Working directly with the Federal Reserve, large banks do not expect any QE changes until the middle of next year.
Weekly EURUSD trading planUnder such conditions, the EURUSD is likely to continue falling towards 1.16 and 1.154-1.156. The absence of the “blue wave” and/or Donald Trump’s rejection of the election results will suggest a deeper correction down.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by benebit to CryptocurrencyICO [link] [comments]
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submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental US dollar forecast todayThe optimism about the ‘blue wave’ prospects in the US, when democrats take control of the White House and Congress and boost the US fiscal stimulus, is gradually being replaced by skepticism. The Republicans may not lose the majority in the Senate. If so, the disputes about the financial aid package could continue after November 3. Does it make sense to buy stocks? The S&P 500 has dropped. The People’s Bank of China is willing to weaken the yuan. Speculators are existing record euro longs. Under the above conditions, the EURUSD fell below the support 1.178 earlier indicated.
The bets on Joe Biden’s victory are bets against the US dollar. However, this fact alone is not enough. If Democrats fail to control the Congress, the Republicans will oppose the new president just like their opponents did in 2017 when Donald Trump tried to carry out the tax and the medical reforms. Or like it was in 2020 when the White House offers a stimulus package, and the House rejects it. After the US election is over, continuous political uncertainty should support safe-havens, including the US dollar.
Investors wonder what will be after November 3. I don’t think the bet on the growing gap between the US and the euro-area economies should stop working soon. According to San Francisco Fed president Mary C. Daly, the US economy is strong and should withstand a new storm. At the same time, investor confidence in Germany's GDP rebound has fallen to the lowest level over the past five months. The number of COVID-19 cases in Germany has reached 6500, the highest value since April’s peak.
Dynamics of Germany’s economic sentiment
The expectations are also pressed down by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has revised the US GDP forecast for 2020 up to -4.3%, from the previous gauge of 8%. The forecast for the euro-area economy has been raised from -10.2% to -8.3%. According to the IMF, the global GDP will contract this year not by 5.2%, projected in June, but by 4.4%. The recession has been mitigated by huge stimulus packages provided by the world’s central banks and governments and the rebound of China’s economy. According to the IMF, China’s economy has already reached the level of 2019 and will exceed it by 1.9 at the end of 2020. In 2021, the Chinese GDP should reach 8.2%.
Source: Financial Times
Investors also doubt that the Fed’s monetary expansion is more aggressive than that of the ECB. According to Bloomberg's research, the European Central Bank is buying more assets within the QE than needed to cover the euro-area budget deficit. So, the ECB monetary expansion seems to be more aggressive than the Fed’s.
Budget deficit and QE, % of GDP
EURUSD trading plan todaySo, the bet on the divergence in the economic expansion and monetary policy may not work after the US presidential election. Speculators are exiting the euro longs, and the EURUSD is going down towards 1.1715 and 1.1625. Hold down short trades entered at level 1.178.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Weekly US dollar fundamental forecastThe ECB attempts to weaken the euro fail. Philip Lane says the ECB already pursues an inflation strategy similar to the Fed. The European Central Bank is unwilling to tighten monetary policy until the inflation growth is reflected in the economic data. Nonetheless, the EURUSD doesn’t react to the ECB’s chief economist's speech and consolidates above figure 18 bottom. According to the HSBC, fiscal policy is currently the main factor in the financial markets, and central banks must admit that they have lost some power.
Although the United States has invested in its economy more money than most other countries in the world and significantly more than during the previous economic crisis, the fiscal stimulus tends to exhaust quickly. The euro-area governments continue to support small businesses and individuals, while the US policymakers can’t reach an agreement on its extension. The new $1.8 trillion stimulus plan offered by the Republicans is the largest in scale and contrasts with Donald Trump's recent announcement to end negotiations with Democrats. However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejects it, calling the plan insufficient.
Sizes of fiscal stimulusSource: Bloomberg
Some analysts suggested the new Republican proposal fueled the rally of the US stock indexes. The S&P 500 was 3.8% up in the week through October 9, having featured the best performance since July. I believe the US stock market is rising as the uncertainty around the US presidential election is lowering. Joe Biden’s chance to win is rising, and his victory shouldn't be such a disaster for the US stock indexes as expected earlier.
According to RealClearPolitics, the gap between Biden and Trump is 9.6 percentage points. For comparison, in 2016, Hillary Clinton was 5.8 pp ahead of Donald Trump three weeks before the vote. JP Morgan suggests the corporate tax hike in the case of Joe Biden's victory will temporarily hinder the US stock market. The higher tax rate will take effect on January 1, 2022, and the S&P 500 is likely to face a storm in the fourth quarter of 2021. However, as the experience of 1987 and 2013 shows, when taxes were also increased, the storm would not last long. After the correction, the bulls should resume the uptrend.
S&P 500 reaction to a corporate tax hike
I believe the US stock market trend is a significant driver for the EURUSD. Ahead of the US presidential election, the pair follows the US stock indexes, mostly ignoring the ECB verbal interventions, the second COVID-19 wave, and the euro-area economic data.
Weekly EURUSD trading planThe US dollar is a more significant Forex currency than the euro, so the ECB willingness to weaken the euro alone is not enough to discourage the EURUSD bulls. Amid the growth of Joe Biden's approval rating, the EURUSD should continue rallying up to 1.1865-1.188. However, Donald Trump is not giving up yet, so one could sell on the price rise.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
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Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.
So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.
EDUMACATION TIMEWhat is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.
This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.
What this rain man level autism means for the economy.Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.
Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.
If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.
If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.
Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental Euro forecast for today
Open EUUSD position according to the euro-area PMI dataFinancial markets base on mathematics. The divergence in the economic growth, having supported the EUUSD bulls during the summer, looked like an equation with one unknown. A better epidemiological situation in Europe than in the USA has almost convinced investors that the euro-area economy will be recovering faster than the US GDP. As a result, the rise of the major currency pair depended on the US economic data. A better economic performance, together with the Fed’s unwillingness to ease its monetary policy (which signals hidden optimism), sent the euro down to $1.18. However, once there appeared some negative, the euro bulls went ahead.
The US jobless claims are again back to a level of above 1 million, the manufacturing PMI data reported by the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed are weak. These reports show that the US economy is not revering as rapidly as the dollar buyers would like. I have many times stressed that the market turns out to be more fundamental amid the interest rates of the world’s leading central banks, which are close to zero. Investors are quite responsive to the reports on the US domestic data, especially since the US economy has been that unknown in the growth- gap equation.
The experts’ projections for the euro-area economy have been optimistic. In my opinion, too optimistic. Since the French-German stimulus plan was adopted, the euro risk reversals have been up by 60-80 basis points. The indicator has increased so rapidly only three times since the records began in 2006, and each time, the EUUSD was up by 5% and more in a few net months. There is an increased demand in the options market for call options with strikes of 1.22, 1.23, 1.25, and even 1.28.
Demand for euro-dollar options
Investors completely forgot that an equation with one unknown could transform at any moment into an equation with two unknowns. In Europe, the second wave of the pandemic unfolding. In Spain, about 4,800 new COVID-19 cases are registered per day, which is the highest since April; in France, the number of coronavirus cases has increased by 50% in a week, in Germany, the figure has exceeded 1,500, the highest since early May. Yes, European relative indicators still fall short of the US, where 150 cases for 1 million of the population (in problematic Spain, there are 110 cases for 1 million), Yes, most infected are young people. Hence, the number of hospitalizations and deaths is small, but who knows how the situation will develop further?
The difficulties will increase amid the expiration of programs to retain the non-working population in the labor force, which could result in a surge in unemployment and weigh on the consumer activity. The ECB stressed this problem at its July meeting, the central bank is willing to expand QE if necessary. It is a bearish factor for the EUUSD, but traders ignored it. The euphoria about the euro is still present and could end up bad for the euro buyers. The uncertainty about the euro-area economic recovery increases the risk that the euro will roll down to $1.18 if the euro-area PMI data for August are weak.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by Bitoffer_Official to BitOffer_Official [link] [comments]
DeFi has a total market cap of $13.022 billion, according to Glassnode, it covers a wide range of sectors including currencies, loans, synthetic assets, instrument architecture (such as forex), exchanges, etc. However, there is a large gap in the derivatives area, such as options. Thus, Institutions such as FinNexus and Chainlink predict that decentralized options will be the next DeFi hotspot, which could be the lifesaver of the Bitcoin contract.
DeFi decentralized options address the crucial points of current decentralized options and the points about investor participation in traditional finance.
The potential of decentralized option flow pools is that it can freely create options with the underlying asset, which not only the digital currencies such as BTC but also the traditional financial assets. Compared with the centralized options, it eliminates the middleman and counterparty, has unlimited liquidity, and the ability to pledge mines.
With the popularity of DeFi decentralized options, the trading strategy of hedging with options and contracts will be used by more people to reduce the risk of being liquidation. After the option hedging, even if the contract is under liquidation, the profit is still far greater than the contract principal, thus, the profit can be maintained eventually.
Here is a detailed description of the hedging strategy of making money under contract liquidation.
For example, now the Bitcoin price is $10,000:
Open long 20X Bitcoin at $800;
Meanwhile, buy 2 put options contracts on BitOffer (the total budget is $60).
✅ The first situation: When the Bitcoin price increases by $200 (+2%):
1.Open long 20X Bitcoin: Losing 40%, $320.
However, it should be noted that the options that we’ve mentioned in this article specifically refer to the BTC options (American version) without margin, commission fee, and liquidation mechanism, which are issued globally by BitOffer Exchange. If you choose traditional European options such as from OKEX and JEX, you cannot carry out such contract hedging, and there is a liquidity risk as well.
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental Euro forecast for today
Which bubble is bigger? The stock or the Forex market?Market bubbles suggest rapidly rising prices, which attract the buyer hoping to earn quick money. Such buyers do not express due diligence or worry about the long-term prospects of what they buy. They ignore standard gauges as irrelevant, and the bubble goes bigger through cheap money. It looks familiar, doesn’t it? The rallies of the US stock indexes and the EUUSD more and more look like a bubble. The bulls, however, do not let it burst.
It took S&P500 just 126 trading days to go back to February highs and hit a new record high. It is the fastest stocks rally after the bear market, which, by the way, had lasted for 33 days, with an average value of 302 of the previous 22 downtrends since the 1920s. Besides, the P/E of the stocks included in the index is 22.6. It is the highest value since the dot-com crisis. But the standard gauges are ignored in bubbles, aren’t they? The market is far from reality. The US economic state is hardly the same as it was in February.
The S&P500 rally has, for a long time, supported the EUUSD bulls, but, now, they have different drivers. The stock indexes are growing amid the Fed’s support, which the euro is strengthening because of the GDP growth gap between the euro-area and the US. Remarkably, the volatility of the equity market and the Forex are now diverging. The US stocks are growing because of the cheap liquidity; the currency market is currently pricing the risks of the possibilities of the COVID-19 second wave in the euro area, the presidential election in the US, and the escalation of trade wars.
The EUUSD rally may also look like a bubble. The net longs on the euro held by the asset managers are the highest ever. The euro-area economy was hit by the pandemic stronger than the US, and the yields on the European securities is still low. After all, everything is relative. While Steven Mnuchin claims that the negotiations between the Democrats and the republicans are stalled, the EU governments are quick to implement mitigation measures. The spread between US and German real yields is as narrow as it was in 2014 last time. The appeal of the US securities is falling, and that of the euro-area assets is growing. Isn’t it a reason to buy the euro?
Dynamics of the spread between US and German real yields
According to Scotiabank, speculative dollar shorts are not excessive; they haven’t reached the level of 2017. The market has just started shorting on the greenback, so there is room to open more shorts. Société Générale notes, the US dollar’s rate, in real terms, is still 25% higher than the levels of 2011, and the Fed is still willing to depreciate the dollar. Is the EUUSD a bubble? I do not think so. My strategy is to hold the euro longs and add up on the price falls. While the price is above 1.183, bulls control the market.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
Scoop Jackson was convinced that there's no place for partisanship in foreign and defense policy. He used to say, 'In matters of national security, the best politics is no politics.' His sense of bipartisanship was not only natural and complete; it was courageous. He wanted to be President, but I think he must have known that his outspoken ideas on the security of the Nation would deprive him of the chance to be his party's nominee in 1972 and '76. Still, he would not cut his convictions to fit the prevailing style. I'm deeply proud, as he would have been, to have Jackson Democrats serve in my administration. I'm proud that some of them have found a home here.
Gaps in the forex markets can often be seen during important news events, or on the first price candles of the week when the market is closed during the weekend. Gaps can be easily distinguishable on Candlestick charts or OHLC bar charts. ( ? Read more about Forex Trading the News) Gaps are identified individually as a Down Gap and an Up Gap. A down gap is formed with the opening price is ... Om Namah Shivay Brothers, Let us discuss on "How to Trade the Gaps" - ( part 1 ) During the trade progression, many gaps happen. There is no hard and first rule to restict them based on count, or based on where gap can happen / where it can not happen. There is nothing like that. Gaps can happen anywhere during the trend. Say we want to categorize them, then they can be categorized as 3 types ... Here, the data and trading plan for a Forex gap trading system are revealed. What is a Trading Gap? A “gap” in the market occurs when the opening price is either higher than the previous session’s high price (gapping up), or lower than the previous session’s low price (gapping down). An example of a gap up is shown below. Note how the last day’s open was above the previous day’s ... Gaps can happen moving up or moving down. In the forex market, gaps primarily occur over the weekend because it is the only time the forex market closes. Gaps may also occur on very short timeframes such as a one-minute chart or immediately following a major news announcement. Examples of when gappage can occur include: When economic data is released – particularly if it contains data that ... This particular time difference is where the gaps might show up. Gaps are empty spaces between the close of one candle and the open of another. Contrary to stock markets, in Forex, gaps are not very common and usually only occur at the market open on Sundays. These gaps occur between a pairs close price on Friday and its open price on Sunday. Common Myth: The Price Always Fills the Gap. Over ... Forex Gap Trading Strategy Rules-How To Trade Forex Gaps. You need to choose a currency pair with a high level of volatility. GBPJPY is a good example but any currency pair that forms a weekend gap should also be good. When the trading day starts on Monday, look to see if there is a gab. Make sure that the gap is at least 5 times the average spread for the pair. For example, if the spread is 3 ... Aside from gap down and gap up, there are four main types of gap, dependent on where they show up on a chart: common gaps, breakway gaps, continuation or runaway gaps, and exhaustion gaps. 1.
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Making quick and easy pips with trading gaps. In trading gaps, often market will filled up the gaps that appear in Monday morning. This is our great chance to win the market. With simple rules ... Gap trading is the most consistent and profitable day trading or scalp trading strategy found in the markets today. You can learn how to trade the gaps properly by understanding the math behind ... Up next How to Trade the Weekend Forex Gap Successfully 🙏📈 - Duration: 11:26. TraderNick 6,309 views. 11:26. Learn Day Trading - LIVE Scalping S&P 500 Futures - Duration: 23:33. ... How to Trade Gaps: Gap Trading by Strength Part 4 👌 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z2N9... How to Trade Gaps: Gap-Fill Trading Strategy Part 5 👌 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkRwM... Check Mark's Premium Course: https://price-action-trading.teachable.com/ 📞 Join Mark's TradersMastermind: https://www.tradersmastermind.com/mastermind Pl... Urban Forex Recommended for you 1:00:35 What is gap up and gap down tradingnifty gap up and down strategystock market for beginnersHindi - Duration: 19:14. it is one of the best intraday trading strategy, what is gap up and gap down trading, how to trade gap up and gap down, it is a breakout strategy, If you wan... Weekend gap trading is one popular trading strategy with foreign exchange, or Forex, traders. While technically speaking, the currency markets trade round-th...